Coachless Rune WPA for Viego
Ingame dmg tests
Looking at these screenshots from coachless, it might seem like HOB is better than Conq because it has a higher WPA. However, that's misleading—Conq is actually better than HOB and will make you much more likely to win games.
For example, with Conqueror, at level 6 on Viego with Kraken Slayer, your damage is 1631 (W AA Q AA R AA). This also activates Conqueror’s healing, since W AA + Q AA fully stacks Conqueror. Now, how does HOB compare?
With HOB, the damage is 1479 using the same combination of attacks (W AA Q AA R AA). Not only does it deal less damage, but it also doesn’t provide the 8% healing that Conqueror does. While HOB may seem to offer higher DPS, that's only because it lets you do the combo faster. However, this difference doesn’t really matter in 99% of real-game situations—especially since your W already stuns the enemy, meaning you’ll often be able to land your full combo while they’re stunned
Explanation
While Coachless' WPA claims to be unbiased compared to normal win rates, it still can't exclude all forms of bias. One of the most significant biases it can't account for is that Conqueror is used in over 95% of games played with the champion. This means the rune’s win rate is almost identical to the overall win rate of the champion, which results in minimal impact on improving win rate.
Meta choices can’t be properly tested with Coachless because they're used in nearly every game. This introduces a major bias that WPA can't fix, and there are still other biases at play.
If we consider only the 4,200 games with HOB and 194,000 games with Conqueror, Conqueror makes up 97.99% of the champion's games, while HOB makes up just 2.01%. This means Conqueror's win rate is nearly the same as the champion's overall win rate, as the champion uses Conqueror in almost every game. Therefore, Conqueror's win rate can't differ much from the champion's general win rate.
I hope this brief explanation helps clarify that just because HOB has a higher WPA on Coachless than the champion's meta choice, it doesn’t mean it’s actually better in any meaningful way.