Why Most People Can't Find Their 3-star Champions - Challenger Guide

Hello! I'm Frobei and I've been Challenger multiple sets (Set 9 and 9.5 included)!

I had the opportunity to play many games on Set 10 before it goes live as I'm training to compete at the highest level for the TFT Vegas Open in December!

Set 10 starts with many strong reroll comps. While it's important to know how to play them, it's even more important to understand WHEN to roll for your 3-stars.

This guide will help you get your 3 -stars more consistently.

Go for a 3* only if you have at least 5 copies of your champion (headliner included)

It's best to slow roll during a spiky of your comp so you don't bleed all your health before finding your 3-stars. This is why you will want to:

• Roll for 1 cost at level 4 and 5
• Roll for 2 cost at level 7 (unless you don't have a choice but to roll at level 6)
• Roll for 3 cost at level 8 (unless you don't have a choice but to roll at level 7)

And you have to constantly check whether you're contested or not.

If the words "Champion pool" and "odds" are unfamiliar, let me clear this up so you'll get a deeper understanding of the game.

• The odds This one is rather easy to understand as you can directly see in your games. Your shop will offer you champions to buy based on your level. For instance, if you are level 3, each card of your shop will have a 75% chance to be a one-cost champion and 25% to be a two-cost champion. Each card is independent of the other so it is statistically possible that you will get five 2-cost champions in your level 3 shop, though it's very unlikely. It's important to remember the game first roll a card tier (1 cost, 2 cost, 3 cost, etc) and then draw a champion from that tier pool.

• Champion Pool This is a little bit harder to imagine because we don't see it in the game. Each champion has a limited copy available in the game and every player is picking from the same pool of champions. So imagine that in a giant bag, we put 22 Yasuo, 22 Evelynn, 22 Annie, etc and everyone is picking from this bag. This has multiple consequences, the first is that if everyone is playing Yasuo, it will become statistically harder and harder to find a Yasuo yourself because most of them will be out of the pool! On the other hand, if everyone is playing Annie, Evelynn and all the other 1 cost champions, you will have more chance to find Yasuo because the bag is thinner but all the 22 Yasuo are still inside!

As you can see in the image above, there are 22 copies of each 1 cost champion, 20 for the 2 cost champions, 17 for the 3 cost, 10 for the 4 cost, and 9 for the 5 cost champions.

It's also important to notice starting at 3 cost, the pool of champions is lower than 18. This means it's mathematically impossible to have two players hit the same 3-star champion because it would require at least 18 champions in the pool. This is why many pro players talk about "denying" others. If they see someone trying to make a Miss Fortune 3, they won't hesitate to buy all the Miss Fortune and keep them on the bench to lower the chances of the other players finding 9 copies of her.

If you are looking for 9 copies of a one cost unit, you'll have on average more than a 20% chance to find all 9 copies with 100 gold at lvl 5.

But if you already have 6 copies of it, then you will have more than 50% chance to find the remaining 3 copies at level 5 with 40 gold (around 20 rolls).

This is why it's important to keep your econ HIGH during stage 2 and stage 3 and to slow roll to find your 3-star 1 cost champion. It's also CRITICAL to NEVER go for a 1 cost reroll comp if you don't have already 5 COPIES of it, including the Headliner because you will most likely never find it.

These are the odds of finding champions at level 6 and level 7 with 100 gold (around 50 rolls). As expected, level 6 provides better odds but this is just one dimension of the game. Staying level 6 forever to find the 3-star champion has a cost, and the cost is health.

Let me explain with the examples below

If I were to stay level 6 to play Katarina reroll, this is the board I'd play. This is a strong Stage 3 board but I would most likely lose all my fights during stage 4 and lose the game if I don't hit Katarina 3 fast enough. And we saw that it requires 100 gold to have only 38% chances to find 6 copies of her if I just have the headliner.

However, if I decide to slowly push level 7 instead of slow-rolling, I will have access to 4 cost units and I can create a much stronger board at level 7 by including Zed and Zac and by adding EDM to have more CC by sampling Zac. With this board, I'm confident I can win stage 4 fights and maybe even stage 5 fights. This is buying me enough time to have 5 to 10 natural rolls and this gives me two options: either I found some copies of Katarina naturally and in this case I will reroll her at level 7 or I didn't find any so I give up my Katarina 3 plan and I simply push level 8 with this board to play a strong late game comp without Katarina.

While being level 6 brings me more chance to find Katarina 3 according to mathematics, it's much better to play slow and wait until level 7 to see whether I can reroll her or not

These are the odds of finding champions at level 7 and level 8 with 100 gold (around 50 rolls). As expected, level 8 provides slightly better odds but this is just one dimension of the game. We also have to take into account the money we need to spend to reach level 8 and the tempo of the lobby.

Let me explain with the examples below

If I were to play Miss Fortune reroll I have two options: either I stay level 7 with the first board to look for my 3 stars or I push level 8 and I slow roll at level 8 to reroll her.

Both options are good but it mainly depends on your situation. Since it cost around 40 gold to push level 8 if we take into account the natural experience, it means you will have less gold to find your 3 stars if you want to find her fast but it's better if you have the time so you can survive stage 4 and 5 without losing too much health and this buys you time.

So now, when should you roll at level 7 for your 3 stars? You will want to roll for your 3 stars at level 7 if:

• You are playing from behind (low health or low econ compared to the lobby) When you are low in health or/and econ, you have no choice but to accept you have to gamble your game and try to find your 3 stars at level 7 FAST. And because you're in a hurry, you can't afford losing 40 gold to push level 8 before rerolling. You have to accept this is a do or die move.

So now, when should you roll at level 8 for your 3 stars? You will want to roll for your 3 stars at level 8 if:

• You have a lot of gold and econ. You are ready to spend 40 gold into exp so you have more chances to find 4 cost and 5 cost units to stabilize your board even more before you find your 3-stars
• You have a lot of health and you are getting contested. While the other is making a "do or die" move, you can play safe and rush your levels to play with more late game units and secure a top
• You have a lot of health and econ and you only have 3 copies of that 3 cost due to a headliner. If you hesitate to reroll because you don't have many copies of a unit, you can simply wait your level 8 and see if you get some copies naturally. If yes you can reroll, if you then you should go for another late game comp.